WECC-California is at risk of energy emergencies during periods of normal peak summer demand and high risk when above-normal demand is widespread in the west. Prior to summer, the planning reserve margin (which is based on existing and firm capacity) for the California-Mexico assessment area was below the 18.4% Reference Margin Level that WECC calculates is needed for maintaining loss-of-load risk below a 1-day-in-10-year benchmark (a 400 MW shortfall at peak demand). Probabilistic studies indicate 10,185 MWh of energy in the area is expected to go unserved this summer. Over 3 GW of additional resources are expected for this summer with most coming in the form of new solar photovoltaic (PV) generation. These generation plants can provide energy to support peak demand; however, solar PV output falls off rapidly in late afternoon while high demand often remains.

Imports to the area are needed to maintain reliability when demand peaks in the afternoon and to ramp up even further for several hours as internal resources draw down. California will have 675 MW of new battery energy storage systems on-line at the start of the summer that can continue to supply stored energy for periods when needed. Reliance on non-firm imports to cover high demand or low resource output conditions heightens the risk that operators will need to use energy emergency alerts (EEA)—and trigger the shedding of firm load in above-normal heat conditions—to maintain a stable BPS at times. Planned resource additions of 1,300 MW over the summer, including 825 MW of new battery storage, are expected to help mitigate late-summer risks.

Additionally, transmission networks can become stressed when events such as wildfires or wide-area heatwaves cause network congestion. The growing reliance on transfers within the Western Interconnection and falling resource capacity in many adjacent areas increases the risk that extreme events will lead to load interruption.

Operation of the BPS can be impacted in areas where wildfires are active as well as areas where there is heightened risk of wildfire ignition due to weather and ground conditions. Wildfire prevention planning in California and other areas include power shut-off programs in high fire-risk areas. When conditions warrant implementing these plans, power lines (including transmission-level lines) may be preemptively de-energized in high fire-risk areas to prevent wildfire ignitions.

Variable energy resources from wind and solar are critical to meeting peak electricity demand in ERCOT. Periods of low wind generation or higher-than expected thermal outages create a reliability risk during peak load hours. ERCOT appears to be in a weather cycle that may increase the risk of intensifying drought conditions and higher than normal summer temperatures. These weather factors could result in actual summer peak demand exceeding the forecast, which already anticipates record peak demand levels. Thermal outages may increase during severe and prolonged drought conditions due to cooling water supply and temperature issues.

Highest risk for unserved energy at peak demand hour, late afternoon (Risk can
extend for 1–2 hours after peak as solar PV output diminishes. Periods of low-wind, which usually occur 1–2 hours before peak demand, can also result in extended shortfall risk.)

The full report identifies the extent of the possible deficiencies, and Robb told reporters of his own concerns about how the energy transition might be impacting reliability.

"In our hurry to develop a cleaner resource base, reliability and energy adequacy have to be taken into consideration," he said.

The latest reliability assessment is "quite concerning," John Moura, NERC's director of reliability assessment and performance analysis, told reporters.

Summer 2020 and winter 2021 were "difficult to say the least," Moura said, and the latest assessment signals "similar risks" lie ahead.

In the long-term, system operators must do extensive analysis to ensure the addition of variable resources will not negatively impact reliability, he added. "As we look forward, it really just looks more stressful," Moura said, "because of the different resources coming onto the system."

Officials at PJM said they were also reviewing the PUC’s decision and that it “appreciates the commission’s consideration.”

“PJM will commence the appropriate planning studies to determine next steps, including identifying any potential reliability issues due to removal of the project from the Regional Transmission Expansion Plan,” the RTO said in a statement.

The OCA also noted that Transource’s assertions regarding “reliability” as a basis for need refer to a single generation deliverability test performed by PJM in 2018.  Further, the OCA noted PJM neither, performed its full suite of reliability tests to confirm that these reliability violations will result in 2023, nor, performed another generation deliverability test since 2018 which may confirm or refute the results of the 2018 test.  

Dominion Energy Virginia is seeking public feedback and advice about linking its planned wind farm, 27 miles off the Virginia Beach shore, to the 500 kilovolt backbone of its statewide power grid at the Fentress substation on Centerville Turnpike in Chesapeake.

Is there a "good" way to present a transmission line proposal to the public?  Not if you're approaching the communities with a fully-formed idea of what you're going to build and where you're going to put it.  The only good way to involve a community in a transmission proposal is to approach them with a need before making decisions about what to build and where.  Presenting a community with a problem to be solved and allowing meaningful input into the solution selected is the only way a transmission company can get community buy-in and support for the proposal.  Everything else is nothing more than a battle to push a bad idea the community doesn't want off onto someone else.

The power company has part of the route nailed down: the 27 miles of underwater cable to a landing point at the state military reservation at Camp Pendleton. It also has proposed an underground route through the southernmost reaches of Naval Air Station Oceana, to comply with regulations restricting structures near airfields, which the Navy must still review.

Its research into what’s on the ground, in terms of neighborhoods, wetlands, wildlife and historic resources has led it to six options for the final roughly 15 miles to the Fentress station.

“We can look at maps and desktop it, but it’s not until we talk to people that we’ll really understand these alternatives,” said Kevin Curtis, Dominion’s vice president, electric transmission.

One option for one of these routes would be to bury the lines for a stretch. That could create much more disruption during construction and mean they were costlier to install and repair than running lines overhead but would mean that portion of the lines would not be visible.

Five routes would run along the never-built Southeast Parkway, now an open space corridor through the most densely populated neighborhoods between Oceana and an area southwest of Princess Anne Road, between the Virginia Beach National Golf Course and the Princess Anne Athletic Complex.

No person shall be held to answer for a capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a Grand Jury, except in cases arising in the land or naval forces, or in the Militia, when in actual service in time of War or public danger; nor shall any person be subject for the same offence to be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb; nor shall be compelled in any criminal case to be a witness against himself, nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation.

Soon enough, eminent domain policies will have to evolve to align with renewable energy policies in order for a complete overhaul of the grid system to be attainable. State and federal lawmakers will eventually have to address the issue by having to revise the definition of “public use” to account for transmission lines transporting renewable electricity.

Financing large-scale, interregional transmission can be particularly challenging for merchant developers, said Shashank Sane, senior vice president and head of transmission at Invenergy.  “The beneficiaries of these projects can be diverse, and so in order to monetize the value of those lines, we have to find the stakeholder who is willing to pay for a certain benefit and create those links,” Sane said. “That’s really not the right model.”

For example, he said, Invenergy’s Grain Belt Express project now under development is aimed at bringing wind power from Kansas across Missouri, Illinois and ultimately to Indiana, providing a connection to MISO and PJM.

“The ITC is the key tool that will enable [the project] because it addresses the cost allocation problem and paying for those multiple benefits a single beneficiary is not willing to pay for,” Sane said.

The tax credit would stimulate both of the main types of transmission projects—regulated rate- based projects and “merchant” lines whose costs are recovered through negotiated or market- based capacity reservations. In the case of regulated lines, a utility or Regional Transmission Organization (RTO) would allocate the costs through a state or federal (FERC) regulatory process across a set of wholesale or retail customers. In that case, the tax credit would reduce the costs paid by those customers and make the cost allocation and approval process easier so more projects can move forward. In the latter case of merchant projects, the transmission capacity reservation costs that developers need to recover from wholesale customers would be reduced by the tax credit. This would allow the transmission developer to offer a more attractive price to customers, increasing the odds of success.

By reducing the cost of electricity, a transmission tax credit can significantly reduce the burden of electricity costs on lower-income Americans. Electricity costs are regressive in that they hit the lowest income Americans disproportionately hard. Electricity accounts for 3.7 percent of total household expenditures for lower-income Americans, versus only 1.4 percent for the highest-income Americans. This is because electricity is a necessity for many aspects of modern life, so the poorest Americans can only reduce their electricity consumption to a limited extent. Unlike other products, it is not possible to use a lower-cost substitute, as a kiloWatt-hour used by a lower-income family is the same and costs the same as one used by a higher-income family. In addition, lower-income Americans have less ability to invest in cost-saving energy efficiency upgrades. As a result, those in the highest 10 percent income bracket only spend twice as much on electricity as those in the lowest 10 percent bracket; for other goods, those in the top 10 percent spend nearly six times as much.In contrast, the federal taxes used to offset the cost of a transmission tax credit are much more progressive, with the top 10 percent of earners paying 60 percent of total federal taxes, and the bottom 30 percent paying negative tax rates due to policies like the earned income tax credit. As a result, a transmission tax credit that moves costs from utility bills to tax bills is very progressive.

Developers of the Grain Belt Express say the massive transmission line remains on track to open up by 2025, connecting wind power in western Kansas with voracious demand in the East.
The 800-mile project promises to add more reliability to the electric grid — all the more enticing since rolling blackouts in February left millions of Americans without power. While the $2 billion overhead transmission line aims at exporting wind energy from Kansas, it will also be capable of moving electricity both directions, which could have helped mitigate the electricity crisis that hit the United States earlier this year.

Zadlo understands the opposition to the project. But he said the benefits for people here and across the United States are immense. Just like railroad cars transport coal from mines to refineries, the Grain Belt will move a much-needed resource to customers, while also strengthening the electrical grid.

"Reliability benefits all people, right? Increasing the reliability of the grid is a good societal impact," he said. "Whether you're in the city or in rural areas, you will benefit from the increased reliability that Grain Belt will bring."

Updating the grid is going to be expensive: at least $150 billion of investment and probably closer to $200 billion. That’s a lot of coin, but here’s the good news: These investments will earn 9 to 11 percent because that’s the regulated return on transmission assets. This is what’s allowed under the regulatory compact that was first laid out in the Binghamton Bridge Supreme Court case of 1865 because transmission is a natural monopoly. This isn’t like the deregulated power generation market; there’s actual competition there so independent power producers like Calpine Corp. can — and do — go bankrupt. Investors can lose everything. Not here — these returns are guaranteed.

The formula is pretty simple. I won’t bother to explain it:

Total revenue requirement = rate base × allowed rate of return + expenses

Biden just unlocked private investment in the grid. It is the most fundamental infrastructure there is — a giant power cord that connects supply with demand. These are valuable assets so the private sector should be lining up to invest. David Swensen made his reputation by championing investment in novel asset classes, and this one is sitting right in front of us: X marks the spot. Pensions and large companies like Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon are sitting on mountains of cash that should be jonesing for private finance initiative projects to build transmission for the federal government, give operational control to a regional transmission organization, and receive the approved return from ratepayers. Do more than consume the power — bank the returns!

One of the most urgently needed policy changes, several clean energy experts and transmission developers argue, is an investment tax credit specifically for transmission projects, which would allow developers to deduct a certain percentage of their costs from their federal taxes. A bill establishing a tax credit for transmission lines has already been introduced by Senator Martin Heinrich, a Democrat from New Mexico, and the concept also appears in Biden’s major infrastructure proposal, the American Jobs Plan. 

Whereas utilities know they can recover the cost of new transmission lines from the ratepayers they already serve, private developers need to confirm that at least a portion of the energy they transport will be purchased, whether it’s by utilities themselves or large corporate energy users like data companies. Many developers, Gramlich said, are ready to begin building, but don’t have quite enough customers to comfortably pull the trigger on construction. A tax credit would help the “project economics pencil out,” he explained, boosting transmission projects over the hump toward completion. 

Joe Kalin in News-Press Now

Joe Kalin has fond memories of growing up in the Buchanan County countryside.
His father came from Switzerland and turned 87 acres near Faucett, Missouri, into a successful dairy farm, where Kalin lived and worked with four brothers and a sister. Before passing it to the next generation, Kalin’s father instilled a deep appreciation for the land and its productive capacity.
“My parents both come from the old country,” said Kalin, now 84. “My father, he loved to farm. It was given to us boys as an inheritance. We were always told to take care of it, that it would care of us.”

It’s a 780-mile, high-voltage transmission line that threatens to cut through the land that brought John Kalin to America in the 1920s. The project, known as the Grain Belt Express, seeks to transfer wind power from western Kansas to population centers east of the Mississippi River.

For his part, Kalin said he isn’t against green energy but opposes being forced to pay the price while others reap the benefits. He doesn’t want to look out the window and see 150-foot power poles where his father once saw a landscape reminiscent of an alpine meadow.
“I don’t like the government telling people what they can do and can’t do with their land,” he said.