Remember the letter to the TVA from Tennessee Congressmen Alexander and Fincher that asked some hard questions about Clean Line's Plains and Eastern Project?
The TVA has responded, and it's not looking good for Clean Line! The letter, from TVA CEO William Johnson, is an exercise in reading between the lines, but here's my take on it, in a nutshell:
Clean Line is not economic for the TVA and presents reliability issues.
The TVA has responded, and it's not looking good for Clean Line! The letter, from TVA CEO William Johnson, is an exercise in reading between the lines, but here's my take on it, in a nutshell:
Clean Line is not economic for the TVA and presents reliability issues.
The answers to Alexander's and Fincher's questions are:
1. Does purchasing electricity from this distance increase security threats to TVA's
power supply? Former U.S. Secretary of State George Schultz has said we should
pay attention to generating more energy where we use it because of national
security risks.
The power grid is a complex, interconnected network of generating plants,
transmission lines, and distribution facilities. This system is designed with
redundancy and resiliency at its core to ensure a reliable electric power system.
Some increase in security risk is unavoidable as distance increases between
generation and point of use. The extra distance provides additional exposure for
natural or malicious events to force a transmission path out of service. The potential
for an interruption with long duration to power supply increases if full transmission network redundancy is not provided or as greater amounts of supply are obtained
from more remote sources. The Department of Defense has become aware of this
risk; it is implementing a program to make its major installations self-sustaining in
energy to mitigate the potential interruption from the grid.
Translation: Yes. The most reliable system is one where generation is located as close as possible to point of use. Long transmission lines increase the opportunities for equipment failure, natural disaster, or terrorist activity. Our military realizes this and has begun to island itself from the vagaries of our increasingly complex grid and long distance power shipments by building its own secure generation sources on site, which is known as distributed generation.
2. What is the cost of purchasing wind electricity compared to TVA generating or
purchasing other types of electricity generation?
TVA is studying the addition of new wind energy resources as part of the
development of its new Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). This process provides
opportunity for public participation. When TVA evaluates the cost of wind energy,
we include the value of the energy itself, as well as the cost to transmit out-of-valley
wind energy to the Tennessee Valley. In addition, there are costs associated with
the intermittent nature of wind generation. Through the IRP, TVA will rigorously
compare wind energy purchases against other alternative sources of energy
(renewables, new and existing TVA generating assets, or purchased power) to
serve local power companies and directly-served customers in a cost-effective
manner.
In FY2013, TVA's average fuel rates by asset type were as follows: nuclear,
$6/MWh; coal, $32/MWh; and gas, $39/MWh. The TVA average system fuel cost,
which includes hydro (no fuel cost) and purchased power, was $24/MWh. By
comparison, off-system wind purchases were $80/MWh (including transmission).
The cost of both wind and solar have trended steadily down in recent years. Lazard
Freres and Company, LLC, a leading financial advisory firm, does a periodic study
on the costs of renewable energy. Its most recent report states that the cost to
generate wind with the Federal production tax credit (PTC) is as low as $23 MWh;
without the credit, the costs are as low as $45 MWh. (Note that these are
production costs that do not take into account the cost of delivery to or the impact on
the TV A system.)
Translation: Wind is the most expensive resource in TVA's portfolio of resources. Wind without the PTC (and there currently is no PTC) costs $45 MWh to produce. In order to get remote wind into TVA's system, Clean Line will add transmission costs that the company previously pegged at $25 MWh, for a total of $70 MWh. This is a figure very generous to Clean Line, because it doesn't include any of the additional costs Clean Line is going to have to cover to pay for any necessary upgrades to TVA's transmission system to handle the injection of its generation. TVA's $80 MWh price for remote wind is probably pretty accurate. In addition, TVA says there are additional indirect costs due to wind's intermittent nature that must be considered. All of this number crunching will occur as part of TVA's Integrated Resource Plan, which is still in process. A decision on Clean Line is still a long way off.
3. There is substantial opposition in Congress to the wind production tax credit. Will
TVA ratepayers be at risk of increased rates if the wind production tax credit is not
renewed?
TVA does not benefit directly from the PTC. As noted in the prior response, the
PTC has a material impact on the cost structure of wind developers and, in turn, the
price they can offer to TVA or other purchasers of the wind energy. Any TVA
purchase of wind energy would be under a long-term contract that would place risk
associated with the tax credit on the seller.
Translation: That would be the wind farm's problem because any contract TVA would sign would be for a fixed price. If a lack of tax incentives makes building new wind farms uneconomic, then they won't be built!
4. What is the reliability of purchasing wind power as compared to other types of
electricity generated by natural gas, nuclear, coal, or hydropower?
Because wind is an intermittent resource that lacks some of the dispatch capability
of other resources, it does not eliminate the need for base load or dispatchable
power plants like nuclear, natural gas, coal and hydropower. Adding intermittent
generation resources like wind can be challenging to manage, particularly as the
volume of generation from those sources increases. Wind patterns are fairly
predictable, but not entirely so; in addition, weather and other factors can affect
output. To maintain reliability, a wind energy purchaser must keep adequate
capacity and spinning reserves to cover the variability inherent to wind. Spinning
reserve is typically calculated as the amount of capacity available to cover the loss
of the largest generation source on the system. Utilities across the country have
been integrating more wind into their systems over the last several years, and TVA
already integrates 1,515 megawatts of off-system wind power. The industry has
growing experience with this issue, but it does make ensuring reliability more
complex.
Translation: Because wind is intermittent, it's not reliable. TVA would have to pay to have reserve generation available at all times to make up for wind's unreliability. In other words, buying wind would do little to shut down existing fossil fuel plants.
5. TVA's peak power demands tend to be between 4:00 p.m. and 7:00 p.m. and wind
tends to mostly blow at night. How does wind power fit into TVA's overall demand
structure if the electricity isn't being produced when TVA needs it the most?
TVA analyzes historic and forecasted wind patterns to determine expected wind
deliveries at our system peak. Our forecasting and planning processes reflect
adjustment to wind generation at our summer peaks based on this analysis. Clean
Line has told us that a production profile provided by the independent meteorology
firm, 3Tier Oklahoma, shows that panhandle wind energy produces at about a 50
percent capacity factor between the hours of 4:00 p.m. and 7:00 p.m., thus
contributing to meeting peak demand. TVA's current wind resources produced
about 25 percent average capacity factor over that peak period last summer, with
significant variation each day (between 5 and 65 percent capacity factor). TVA will
take the seasonal and time-of-day energy patterns of wind into account when
evaluating adding additional wind energy to its portfolio.
Translation: Clean Line says its generation will be available 50% of the time, but reality and experience shows it will actually only be available 25% of the time, with extreme highs and lows. When there are lows, the lights could go out if there isn't enough reserve generation ready to go (spinning).
6. At a roundtable in September 2013, hosted by Senators Corker and Alexander, you
said that TVA didn't need additional electricity generation capacity as the result of
reduced electricity demand. Has this projection changed?
Electricity demand is not expected to return to 2007 levels until the end of this
decade. We are projecting growth in demand of approximately 0.6 percent per year,
net of TVA's energy efficiency efforts. TVA believes that we have adequate
supplies to meet the near- to mid-term energy needs of the Valley reliably. Cleaner
energy sources, including nuclear, renewables, hydro and energy efficiency, provide
diversity within TVA's existing balanced energy portfolio. TVA is evaluating future
power needs and opportunities to meet them through the IRP. Wind and other
generating resources are regularly evaluated against existing or planned asset
additions to address changing conditions.
Translation: Demand has tanked and is not expected to recover.
7. If the projection for TVA's electricity demand has changed since September 2013,
does it make more sense to purchase this wind power from Clean Line Energy
Partners, to build additional nuclear capacity, or to build additional natural gas or
coal capacity?
While demand over the next decade or so is predicted to be stable with low growth,
the TVA generation fleet is in transition. TVA has retired or will retire a substantial
portion of its coal fleet; we are committed to the completion of Watts Bar Nuclear
Plant Unit 2 and to a large new gas combined cycle plant in Paradise, Kentucky.
We have the potential to get incremental megawatts from the hydro system and a
significant amount from power uprates in the nuclear fleet. We have to either
retrofit, retire, or replace the Allen Plant in Memphis before 2019 under the terms of
an agreement with EPA and others. (Clean Line cannot supplant Allen because of
the need for a generation source physically located in that area to provide
transmission support that imported wind generation cannot provide.) In addition,
other market participants have approached TVA with expressions of interest to
provide electricity from gas, nuclear, wind and solar assets. TVA also factors in
energy efficiency and demand response programs into its resource decisions. The
recently announced draft 111 (d) rule from EPA, if enacted in its current form, will
also have a national impact on future decisions.
Clean Line will be evaluated in this context of low growth, transitioning fleet and
other options by application of the statutory mandate and guidance noted in the
preamble of this letter.
Translation: In a word, no. Clean Line isn't even a useful substitute for generation from coal plants that TVA is planning to close. There are plenty of other resources available.
The rest of the questions deal with eminent domain questions, which TVA could have batted away entirely because TVA will not participate in those activities. However, TVA answered each question with, "Clean Line said...." and repeated the same old carefully crafted lines about "voluntary acquisition," continued use of the properties for farming and ranching, and compensation in accordance with Clean Line's paid-for market value studies. Read these answers using a falsetto voice for the things Clean Line said and you'll get a better appreciation for TVA's tongue-in-cheek repetition of Clean Line propaganda.
Bottom Line: Clean Line needs to look elsewhere for customers for its Plains & Eastern payload.
The rest of the questions deal with eminent domain questions, which TVA could have batted away entirely because TVA will not participate in those activities. However, TVA answered each question with, "Clean Line said...." and repeated the same old carefully crafted lines about "voluntary acquisition," continued use of the properties for farming and ranching, and compensation in accordance with Clean Line's paid-for market value studies. Read these answers using a falsetto voice for the things Clean Line said and you'll get a better appreciation for TVA's tongue-in-cheek repetition of Clean Line propaganda.
Bottom Line: Clean Line needs to look elsewhere for customers for its Plains & Eastern payload.
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