PJM's Altered Reality

Yesterday, PJM Interconnection held its monthly Transmission Expansion Advisory Committee (TEAC) meeting.  At the meeting, PJM revealed its plan for massive transmission expansion around the Mid-Atlantic region to fix electric reliability issues caused by the closure of 11,000 megawatts of fossil fuel generation combined with 7,500 megawatts of increased demand from the out-of-control building of new data centers in Northern Virginia.  It doesn't take a mathematician to realize that these numbers add up to a need for increased electric generation close to 20,000 megawatts.  For reference, a good sized coal, nuclear or gas-fired electric generation station amounts to around 800-1000 megawatts.  We need 20,000 megawatts of what's known as "baseload" power, generation that can be counted on to generate when called and is not dependent upon weather or other factors to produce electricity.  Also for reference, a good sized solar farm may have the capacity to produce up to 100 megawatts, if it has the fuel (sunshine) necessary to generate.  We're going to need 20-25 new baseload generation plants, or 200 new large solar farms.  PJM does not order new generation to be built.  It can only order new transmission to move existing generation around.  And that is the purpose of PJM's new transmission plan.  PJM plans to import electric generation to Northern Virginia from West Virginia and Pennsylvania, the only two states in the PJM region that still produce excess electricity from fossil fuels.  In order to do so, PJM has planned numerous new extension cords from WV and PA that will connect with the "needy" areas in the DC - Baltimore metro areas.  On PJM's map, it looks like this:

As shown, much of the burden of importing generation into the DC - Baltimore area is placed on rural areas to the north and west, who are expected to sacrifice their homes, businesses, and communities to make way for these new transmission extension cords.  

One such project begins in WV's northern panhandle along the Ohio River at the Kammer substation and meanders southeast for hundreds of miles through 4 states before connecting to a new substation in Northern Virginia's "data center alley."  PJM's map of this project looks like this:

At the western end, the extension cord is surrounded by old coal and gas electric generators in WV and SW PA.  Look at them all!  That's where the power will be produced.  At the eastern end, the extension cord is surrounded by data centers.  That's where the power will be used.  This project proposes to build a new 500kV transmission line on new right-of-way adjacent to an existing line.  People who have one line on their property will now have two.  In some areas, it proposes to veer off the existing lines and create new rights-of-way in areas without transmission lines.  In Jefferson County, WV, the proposal is to demolish and rebuild an existing 138kV transmission line on an expanded right-of-way to create a double circuit 500/138kV transmission line on new lattice steel towers up to 200 feet tall.  In some areas of Jefferson, the project will veer off the right-of-way and create new right-of-way in areas that currently do not have transmission lines.  Once the project crosses the Appalachian Trail and enters Virginia, it proposes to veer sharply south/southeast and create a new 500kV transmission line through areas that currently do not have transmission lines, such as Waterford.  At its end point, it will connect with a new substation along the Dulles Greenway in Ashburn.

To the northeast, PJM proposes a new 500kV transmission line on new right-of-way in areas that currently don't have transmission lines in order to bring power from Pennsylvania produced by gas and nuclear to an existing substation in Frederick County, MD called Doubs.  From Doubs, the project will create two new 500kV lines into data center alley built mostly on existing transmission line routes.  On PJM's map, that project looks like this:

The major new lines that will require new transmission rights-of-way are in the west and north.  Worse yet, PJM has assigned these greenfield projects to competitive transmission builders from other states.  Much of the western line is assigned to NextEra, a company from Florida.  The northern line is assigned to PSE&G, a company from New Jersey.  These companies don't know our communities or how impossible it will be to plow through them with new transmission lines.  And at the end of the day, they may not care... they won't be seeing it from the windows of their own homes.

Only in Jefferson County will the west project be assigned to incumbent FirstEnergy/Potomac Edison because it is a expansion and rebuild of a line they already own.  These are the same guys who brought us the Potomac-Appalachian Transmission Highline, or PATH, project between 2008-2012.  Won't we have fun the second time around?

And with that rough description of the plan presented, here's my report of yesterday's TEAC meeting.

The meeting was kicked off with a brief speech from PJM's Vice President of Transmission, Ken Seiler, who read from some canned speech about how this transmission plan is the result of transitioning to clean energy.  You can read more about that here.  PJM's can also included that article.  But things didn't quite go as planned.  I spoke up to state that PJM's plan is nothing more than a giant extension cord importing fossil fuel power from WV and PA into Northern Virginia.  I asked how this comports with Virginia's "clean energy" laws.  Are Virginia's clean energy goals nothing but a sham they hide behind while actually importing more fossil fuels from surrounding states?

PJM personnel tried to push back that its plan would connect "new resources" but it was half-hearted at best.  There are no "new resources" anywhere near these lines.

PJM TEAC leaders explained how their plan would be read twice at TEAC meetings and then submitted to the PJM Board of Managers for approval.  Once approved (because *gasp* that can be the ONLY outcome!) the projects would be assigned and the utilities would take it from there.  PJM explained it would allow a whopping six, count 'em 6, days from second read to Board meeting.  Because being boxed into a time crunch isn't my favorite thing, I asked how we could contact PJM's Board of Managers right now.  PJM said it would send me the information, but that only poked the hornet's nest.  Many other attendees also wanted the information so they could contact the Board.  A gentleman from the Maryland Office of People's Counsel told PJM they should be running this more like a public hearing.  Bravo!  PJM's "transparency" with stakeholders leaves much to be desired.  Many people have tried to sign up for meetings and found themselves in an impossible maze.  Even if they finally do manage to sign up, they have to sit in the meeting for hours just to get an opportunity to comment on this plan, which is always the last item on the agenda.  Ain't nobody got time for that!  PJM offered up that it would take email comments, something I had to force them into months ago.  PJM tried to direct comments to some "customer service" email that is nothing but a black hole.   I know how to contact the Board directly and it was confirmed yesterday after much discussion.  More to come on that front, but get your pencils sharpened and be ready to send your comments!

I asked PJM what would happen if this plan and all its separate parts are not approved and built by the "in service" date selected (June 2027).  Will the lights go out?  Will the utilities in No. Va. have to tell the new data centers that they cannot supply them with electricity?  PJM's answer was long and winding about how much these new projects are "needed" but at its core I saw a glimmer of reality.  Yes, they would have to stop serving new load so the lights won't go out.  This is where PJM's reality diverges from the one the rest of us live in.  PJM thinks these projects (all of them) will be built on time and on budget.  PJM won't even entertain the reality that the vast majority of these projects won't be built on time, and several of them won't be built ever.

After the PATH failure, I've worked with landowner groups on at least a dozen other transmission projects around the country that were hotly opposed.  Not one of them has ever been built.  I know a transmission failure in the making when I see it, and I know how to push it off the possibility cliff.  PJM is not being realistic, despite losing a lot of major transmission battles in recent memory.

I asked why PJM changed its plan to allow FirstEnergy to build the west project in Jefferson County at the very last minute before yesterday's meeting.  It's because FirstEnergy owns the line that will be rebuilt.  That's something I questioned at the last TEAC meeting where PJM insisted that NextEra would be doing the rebuild.

And speaking of FirstEnergy and the project in Jefferson County, I also asked whether the new solar "farms" in Jefferson that are being built adjacent to the existing line that will be rebuilt will lose service for an extended period of time while the rebuild is happening.  These projects have waited years to interconnect to the existing line and now they may not have service after all until the project is completed.  It could be many months because the existing line has to be shut off and torn down before the replacement is built.  PJM's answer, if you can believe it, is that FirstEnergy did not come prepared to answer that question.  In other words, we don't know or care.  I thought PJM was a planner?

I asked what would happen if one of the segments of the West project was not approved by one of the 4 states that have siting authority.  Would changes be made or would the project be cancelled?  After all, if the little greenfield segment in Loudoun County is not approved, there's no need for the rest of it because it cannot connect to the data centers and we have no need for it here.  PJM's answer is that would be up to the utilities building it.  Another non-answer!  It's up to the state regulators to condition any approval on the entire project being approved before any building starts.

PJM announced that the cost of all these projects would be more than $5 Billion.  The cost would be added to the electric bills of every electric customer in the PJM region (that means you!).  I asked if that cost included financial incentives granted by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which can increase costs significantly.  PJM said no.  The utilities building these projects can apply with FERC to increase their profits with higher returns (interest) and other accounting treatments that allow them to start charging ratepayers right away for projects that may or may not be built until later.  In addition, FERC can (and probably will) grant the abandonment incentive, which means ratepayers will pay for these projects WHETHER THEY ARE EVER CONSTRUCTED OR NOT.  This "plan" is going to cost us a lot more than $5B.

PJM did agree to share the "constructabilty report" it created before selecting these projects.  The report evaluates the risks and costs of each project, as well as the feasibility of actually constructing it when faced with opposition, and compares the projects to find the one with the greatest chance of success at the lowest price.  Last month, I asked PJM to make this report public and it flat out refused.  Now it says its report will be included in its recommendation paper to the Board of Managers.  Baby steps...

Yesterday's TEAC lasted 6 hours and 49 minutes, according to the timer on my WebEx.  It was a giant time suck that produced little new information, but we can't let them win because we don't show up.

PJM will recommend these awful transmission ideas to its Board of Managers on December 11.  It is up to all of us to convince the Board to reject this ill-conceived plan and demand that TEAC come up with something better.  How about something that will not place burden on communities that will receive no benefit?