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Fits of Fantasy

7/19/2023

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I think the phrase is actually flights of fantasy, but... well, you'll see.

Data centers.  Have you ever really thought about them when you're poking around online and the world is at your fingertips?  Probably not, but we have to have a place to store all our big data that we just can't seem to part with.  We're full-blown digital hoarders. 

Data centers use a huge amount of electricity, and they must have a steady supply 24/7, 365.  Data centers depend on enormous backup generators (that run of fossil fuels) in the event of a power outage.  Data centers require on demand, reliable power.

But this industry fit of fantasy proclaims that we can run data centers on 100% renewable power.  No, we can't.  We don't have the technology to produce on-demand supplies of electricity from 100% renewable generators.  Wind and solar only run part of the time, when their fuel is made available by Mother Nature.  A data center that relies 100% on wind and solar will 100% use its backup generators for at least 50% of the time.  And doesn't that defeat the purpose of "clean energy" in the first place?

The fit of fantasy examines several data center clusters in the U.S., including the nation's largest data center market in Northern Virginia.  Northern Virginia data centers operate on 94% fossil fuel electricity.  94%!!!!  That's the type of power needed to power a 24/7 365 power hog like data centers.

But, never fear, this fit of fantasy thinks the problem can be solved by building new transmission.  I'm going to guess the author hasn't bothered to examine PJM's recent competitive solicitation for new transmission projects to solve the issue of powering Northern Virginia's data center power suck.  It looks like this.
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One proposed solution simply imports more fossil fuel electricity from the Ohio Valley.  That's sure to speed the "transition" (to 100% fossil fuel power).  Other solutions pump fossil fuel electricity in from Pennsylvania.  It's all about importing more fossil fuel electricity instead of building reliable renewable generators near the load.  That's because, first of all, PJM can only order transmission, not generation, and second wind and solar cannot supply reliable power that will run a data center 24/7 365.

Where's the disconnect?
The superficial examination of how easy it will be to build new transmission is where this fantasy starts having fits.
Plans to transition U.S. data centers to renewable energy power sources are impeded by current utility transmission infrastructure. The main problems are outdated power lines, delays in planning and permitting for new transmission and distribution projects and supply chain bottlenecks. Upgrading existing transmission lines can take as long as three years, according to the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, due to time-consuming regulatory hurdles, resulting in multi-million-dollar costs.

An electric line is just an empty extension cord, not plugged in to anything.  Unplugged extension cords do not produce electricity.  What you need is another plug -- a reliable generator on site.  Having extra extension cords won't produce power if there's no place to plug them in.  Not having enough extension cords is not the problem.  "Time consuming regulatory hurdles" is something this author doesn't know anything about.  There are no hurdles for simple rebuilds on existing rights-of-way.  More extension cords are not the answer.


Upgrading power transmission infrastructure to accommodate renewable energy sources is a top priority for utility companies. Recently adopted federal legislation provides $2.5 billion in public funding for this effort. Additionally, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) plans to study and address these ongoing issues. Utility companies are cooperating with regulators, city officials, operators and developers throughout the U.S. to improve connectivity.

Do you have any idea how much "power transmission infrastructure" costs?  A good sized transmission project that connects renewable energy resources easily costs MORE THAN $2.5 billion.  Qu'est-ce que "public funding"?  There's no such thing.  What they meant to say is TAXPAYER FUNDING by people like you.  This legislation won't do anything but complicate things.  How many times has the federal government run to the rescue with handfuls of cash and solved a problem efficiently and cheaply?  FERC plans to study and address them?  How?  Do tell!  I'm betting you don't even have a ghost of an idea.

This report highlights select regional data center markets that are working to advance renewable energy power availability and solve transmission and distribution issues. These markets all depend on local renewable energy sources and are at the forefront of a transition necessary for the data center industry to grow on a sustainable basis.

WTH?  These markets depend on local renewable energy sources?  Where are they going to put millions of acres of solar panels and wind turbines in crowded Northern Virginia when every square inch of available real estate is covered with data centers, warehouses, and urban sprawl?  What you're depending on is faked "plans" by utilities checking the politically correct boxes while raking in a huge pile of money.  Dominion doesn't give a fig about the environment, or your data center.  It only loves money.  Dominion will say or do anything, even if it knows what it is saying is impossible, as long as foolish data center companies enable bigger profits for Dominion.

The data center industry cannot grow on a sustainable basis unless they starting building nuclear plants inside the data centers.

Fits of fantasy.  No matter how much fiction you write, you cannot force it into being.
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Pot Calls Kettle Black in Ironic Twist

6/30/2023

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Hit it, Alanis...
Clean energy and environmental justice saints are pointing the finger at natural gas companies for ghostwriting letters of support for their project that were signed by local big wigs.

Isn't it ironic?  These very same groups also engage in a little astroturfing of their own.  I am always coming across form letters in FERC dockets orchestrated by environmental and social justice groups that are indisputably form letters, such as this letter of support signed by 17,923 clueless petition signatories or these 10,905 form letters submitted by the National Wildlife Federation.  Isn't that the pot calling the kettle black?

It seems like the sanctimonious blowhards didn't have much trouble getting biased media to point fingers and make it seem like gathering letters of support are something new.

Shopping around "letters of support" for an energy project (or a FERC rulemaking) has been going on for decades.  There's no law against it.  It's just plain, old annoying and it's not fooling any regulators at this point.  Why do they continue doing it?  Because energy companies are like vintage Titanics, sailing along on yesterday's public relations schemes. 

Perhaps the opposition groups are just ticked off that the gas company was able to get the signatures of more important people than they were.  Really, none of it matters.  Form letters are never read past the first one.  Nobody cares.  They don't even keep little score sheets of the number of comments for or against.  It's complete nonsense.

However, shopping around form letters does become a problem when the company uses public or ratepayer funds to pay for its public relations schemes.  I don't see where these whiners even bothered to investigate whether that's happening in this instance.  Why do any hard work when the media eats up your BFD allegations?

Of course it's annoying when the opposite side uses underhanded tricks to drum up fake support for their position. 
“I think that really, really rankles people here in Port Isabel, to see somebody from another city writing a letter saying, ‘hey, you know what? You ought to hurry up and put this polluting, dangerous facility in somebody else's town,’” Port Isabel City Manager Jared Hockema told TPR.
And a particularly bitter pill to swallow when that support comes from unaffected individuals that may have had their hands out for some quid pro quo.  It's not  uncommon for the company to offer some "donations" or "campaign contributions" or other one hand washes the other kind of "help" in exchange for letters or public comments of support.  When they can't build support honestly, they buy it.

How would these folks like it if the ghostwritten letters and handfuls of cash were coming from the federal government instead of the private sector?  Congress has unwisely set aside a $760M pot of taxpayer money to fund "economic development" and "grant" payments to "communities" affected by new electric transmission projects.  Nevermind the fact that transmission is a linear project whose "community" is linear, the government is eager to dole out your tax money to some other town to pay for your misery living with a transmission line on your property.  The only thing these other towns must do is make sure the project gets approved. 

I suppose they'll sign some ghostwritten letters.
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Big Transmission Needs Big Propaganda

6/28/2023

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The climate change religious freaks were wrong that we could power our country completely on renewable energy.  Our electricity system has become increasingly unreliable and energy shortages are a "when", not an "if," because we closed too many fossil fuel generators that can run at peak when needed.  Oops.  But in order to cover up that lie, they have made up a new one.  They purport that if we only triple the amount of electric transmission in this country that we could reliably power our entire country with only renewable sources of energy. 

Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me!  I'm done listening to the climate change preaching because it's become increasingly clear that it is nothing but a control method thought up by a bunch of people who know nothing about electricity.  Spending trillions (that's with a "t") on new electric transmission lines won't make renewables reliable.  It will just compound the problem and turn electricity into a commodity only obtainable by the elite.  See how that works?  It's all about control.

And how do you control the people?  Propaganda.  If you say something often enough, then it becomes fact in the minds of the unenlightened.  We are currently awash in Big Transmission propaganda.  Only if we build an unobtainable amount of transmission before 2030 can we meet Grandpa Joe's climate change goals (as if that old fart is any more than a puppet being controlled by Big Green).  Big Media is stupidly repeating big lies because they think that makes them "smart."  They are currently pretending that the age of some transmission components is the reason most of the country is expected to experience blackouts, instead of the fact that we have closed too many peaking dependable generators.  Did they not even read the report they are "reporting" on?  They also like to pretend "the energy grid" is responsible for the potential blackouts.  Do they really think transmission lines are the problem?  Or are they just so exceptionally stupid that they think electricity is produced by the wires?

Take a look at this week's Big Propaganda from the inaptly named "Energy Intelligence."  Snicker, giggle, haw haw.  We're supposed to believe that "red tape" is the reason we can't have renewable energy.  This piece is brimming over with mind control.

It complains that every wind and solar project cannot connect to the existing transmission system quickly and cheaply.  There's a reason for that, and it's not what they think.  We designed our system of generators and transmission lines for efficiency, not source of energy.  The system is designed to make the generator pay for its own connection to the system.  After all, the generator is the one who is going to make money selling power at that connection.  There is no other magic pool of money to pay for connection.  If the generator does not pay, then all the electric customers pay (even ones that won't use that generator).  That's not fair.  Another reason for making the generator pay for its own connection is to encourage efficient siting of new generators.  We should build the most cost effective generators in order to keep electric rates low.  Making the generator pay to connect forces them to site their plant efficiently.  They would not build a coal plant in Lower Slobovia because connecting it to the system would be way too expensive.  They would build it in Upper Slobovia instead because the transmission system is closer and stronger there.  Fuel source is not a consideration.  If we instead build generators using fuel source as the only consideration, then the connections get really expensive.  Whining about that is a way to attempt to shift the cost of inefficient generator siting to electric consumers, even though the renewable generator is literally generating buckets of taxpayer dollars from thin air.  Heaven forbid they have to use a little of your gold to pay for their own connection!

There's a huge interconnection backlog because renewable developers take multiple spots for the same generator, hoping to find the cheapest connection.  A huge percentage of projects in the queue (80%) never get built because greedy developers are clogging queues with speculative connection requests.  Those projects were never real to begin with.  It's just developer gaming.

NO, we will not shoulder more cost burden so renewable developers (many of them foreign corporations) can connect anywhere it's cheap and easy to build in order to increase the amount of taxpayer dollars they walk away with.

Somehow, Big Wind + Big Solar + Big Transmission are "choked by regulation", but yet we need MORE regulation on fossil fuel energy systems?  Are they really saying that we should let an invasive industry do whatever it wants? 

This OpEd makes regional transmission operators/independent system operators (RTO/ISO) look like nothing but utility cartels that somehow got control of the electric system.  While incumbent utilities have made up the majority of the organization memberships for decades, there's nothing stopping Big Wind + Big Solar + Big Transmission from participating, except for the fact that they're not really needed for any reliability or economic purposes and therefore would not be ordered by the RTO.   Merchant generators and transmission cannot shift their costs to captive ratepayers without an RTO order.  Seems fair enough, with the federal government tilting the playing field to favor renewables and whatever they want by showering them with out tax dollars and giving preference to generation source (something they claimed they would/could not do for years).  No need to be coy any longer.  Renewables get special favors and the power houses that keep the grid from crashing get financially starved until they close.  We're headed for disaster here.

But, pushing regulated utilities aside in favor of "independent" generators and transmission developers isn't the solution either.  "Independent" energy companies are often market-based merchants that escape regulation.  Merchant transmission lines are not the answer because today's merchant is not accepting any financial risk and not negotiating its rates in a free market.  Today's merchant wants government loan guarantees, transmission tax credits, and guaranteed customers so it has no financial risk at all.  When that happens, it is no longer a merchant project, but one that is being involuntarily supported by taxpayers who will never use it.  A merchant transmission project also escapes regulation and scrutiny of need for it in the first place.  Want to make a bunch of money?  Propose a "merchant" transmission line that might be profitable if utilities use it, then leave the government holding the bag when the project fails.

So what if incumbent utilities get right of first refusal to build new transmission?  It's not like merchant transmission serving renewable generators can even compete.  Apples and oranges.  Only needed transmission is planned and ordered by regional organizations, and charged to captive ratepayers.  Merchant transmission is not needed, it's optional, therefore it has to pay its own costs and shoulder all the financial risk.  The propagandists are trying to change this paradigm to independently find merchant transmission "needed" outside the regional organization process, and then shift cost responsibility and risk to consumers and/or taxpayers.  If that happens, why even have regional transmission organizations and reliability organizations?  Why have any organization or regulation of the grid?  Why not just let private investors build what they want and hope the lights stay on?  Because they wouldn't, not without reliability organizations and independent transmission planners.  Electricity would become a commodity available only to the rich, who can afford their own private systems.  How far will they go to try to control the rest of us?
“We’re on the verge of energy abundance and independence if we can just get the energy from where it’s made to where it’s needed,” said Colorado Sen. John Hickenlooper who co-sponsored a bill that would establish a minimum-transfer requirement for regions to be able to transfer at least 30% of their peak electrical loads with other regions. “Show me a new power project in this country and I’ll show you red tape and haphazard grid planning holding us back.” Democrats pushed to have the bill included in the debt ceiling deal but Republican opposition prevented it.
The only thing Hickenlooper can show is his stupidity.  He can't do what he pretends to do because he is stupid about how electricity works.

All these private entity, bought and paid for, politically-biased "studies" about the grid and what the grid needs are simply not enough to plan and operate a fair, balanced, cost effective electric system in the public interest.  They only encourage failing projects like Grain Belt Express.  In exchange for little to no regulation, including no evaluation of need for the project, transmission merchants agree to shoulder all risk and cost of the transmission project.  But yet Invenergy is whining that it should not have to hold up its end of the bargain. 
Often, transmission projects fall by the wayside because of the capital required upfront and the logistics of tying together buyers and sellers in regional marketplaces with different rules and processes. “If you’re going to inject power you have to put money down ahead of time for system upgrades. Independent developers are asked to say yes or no on those down payments before having firm interconnection permissions and timeline certainty from grid operators,” said Rob Taylor, director of transmission at Chicago-based Invenergy. “Our request is to standardize the processes, timelines and definitions so you can have a level playing field."
Invenergy’s Grain Belt Express transmission project, the highest-capacity line in development in the US, will connect four states across 800 miles, taking mostly wind from Kansas (in the Southwest Power Pool) and delivering it into MISO and PJM, the ISO/RTO covering much of the northeast. With a capacity of 5 GW, the proposed project will use HVDC technology. Since Invenergy acquired the project in 2020, it has progressed through key state approvals, with one remaining approval expected at the end of August. Assuming full construction starts at the end of 2024, the project will have been in the works for over a dozen years.
Well, well... you expect approval?  Why is that?  Did you put money down on it?  If you don't like having to put up money and accept risk, then abandon the merchant transmission model and bid on one of the regionally planned and transmission projects ordered by an RTO.

The more electricity issues infiltrate main stream media, the dumber the story gets.  
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What's for dinner?

6/14/2023

1 Comment

 
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The New York Times is on a biased roll.  It keeps writing ridiculous and uninformed articles and opinions about "permitting reform" and electric transmission.  It refuses to publish any dissenting opinions or responses, such as this thoughtful piece from a New Jersey consumer group.

Instead, the NYT just doubled down with a second article singing the praises of Grain Belt Express.  The article purports that the opposition to the project is merely concerned about it being an "eyesore."

I'd like to give the reporters a few eyesores of their own, such as this blog and going to bed without supper a few times.
Communities have various reasons for blocking these projects. Landowners might worry about the government seizing their land. Power lines, wind turbines and solar panels can be eyesores in places that rely on beautiful vistas for tourism. Such projects can damage the environment by displacing wildlife or cutting down trees.
These poor, little New York City dwellers don't seem to know where their food comes from.  New transmission projects across working farmland remove land from production and pose various impediments to modern farming, preventing the efficient and economic use of land to produce food.  It's more than just an "eyesore", it impacts their business and their income.  And it also impacts the amount of food they can produce to feed arrogant and biased big city reporters.  Who is going to volunteer to go hungry for each acre of productive farmland that is destroyed by industrial wind and solar and new transmission rights of way?  Probably not these reporters, who must think their food is created at the Walmart factory.

These reporters also have many of their "facts" incorrect.  Let's examine a few:
With its open plains and thousands of miles of wheat fields, Kansas is one of the windiest states in the U.S. That makes it a great place for turbines that capture the wind and convert it into electricity. But too few people live there to use all that power.
So in 2010, developers started planning a large power-line project connecting Kansas with Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. They wanted to move the clean energy generated in Kansas, from both wind turbines and solar panels, to states with much bigger populations. That would let more communities replace planet-warming fossil fuels that have contributed to the kinds of wildfires and unhealthy air that have blanketed large swaths of North America this week.

Have they bothered to look at a wind resources map?  There are better wind resources located off both coasts and in the Great Lakes.  Why would they build in Kansas, miles from "people who use all that power" and not in those better resource areas located conveniently near all those power sucks?  They may not even need transmission to do that.  But they don't want to because they don't want that infrastructure in their own back yard.

No community can replace fossil-fuel baseload generation with intermittent wind and solar from thousands of miles away if they want the lights to go on when they flip a switch.  Renewables cannot follow load.  Load follows renewables.  The communities would still need a power source that could produce when it is needed.  There is absolutely no evidence that fossil fuels caused Canadian wildfires, or any others.  On the west coast, electric transmission lines actually cause wildfires.  The "unhealthy air" actually reduced solar production by an incredible 50%.  It's a circular argument.  Which came first?  The chicken or the egg?
Thirteen years later, however, full construction has not yet started on the project, known as the Grain Belt Express. Why? Because in addition to federal permission, the project needs approval from every local and state jurisdiction it passes through. And at different times since 2010, at least one agency has resisted it.
Full construction has not yet started because Grain Belt Express changed ownership, and then changed its project, including the route, requiring new state permits.  It also had to change the law in Illinois to grant itself public utility status and eminent domain in the counties it intends to cross.  The only "federal" permission the project needed was a conditional order to negotiate rates with potential customers.  That was granted in 2014.  The problem is, there have been no customers, aside from a small coalition of Missouri municipalities who signed a contract to purchase "up to" 200 MW of the project's 5000 MW capacity.  That's less than 5%.  The federal permission to negotiate rates also required former owner, Clean Line Energy Partners, to hold an "Open Season" to advertise its project's capacity to potential buyers.  Clean Line then had the ability to negotiate with those buyers and make a compliance filing demonstrating that it fairly negotiated with buyers who responded to its Open Season.  Clean Line held an Open Season in 2015, but no buyers were ever announced and no compliance filing was made.  New owner Invenergy says it is negotiating with potential buyers, but it has yet to hold a proper Open Season.  It also failed to notify the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission of the change of ownership and the change of project capacity, as required by the 2014 Order.  Seems to me that all delays were of GBE's own creation.
One way to get at that problem is to do what experts call permitting reform. The issue has recently gained national traction, and President Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy, the House Republican leader, discussed it during debt-limit negotiations last month. Local and state governments are considering changes, too.
The goal is to streamline the approval process for energy projects so they can avoid the fate of the Grain Belt Express. As long as such projects languish, Americans will keep using existing coal, oil and gas infrastructure for their energy needs.

Federalizing transmission permitting is not going to solve the delays detailed above.  And it will not make GBE find the customers it needs to make its project economically viable.  Recently, GBE has applied with the federal Department of Energy for a loan guarantee to construct its project.  Permitting reform will not make the DOE grant the loan.  Only sheer ignorance would make the DOE grant a loan guarantee to a project with few customers and little revenue with which to pay back the loan.
The case for a permitting overhaul is that the current system has gone too far. Existing policies have helped protect the environment, landowners and tourism. But they have also become a burden that slows projects far longer than is necessary to ensure safeguards. Reform, then, would be about finding a better balance.
And though changes could allow more fossil fuel projects, they would probably enable far more clean energy projects, experts say. With public attention to climate change, technological breakthroughs and hundreds of billions of dollars in federal spending, clean energy is expected to become cheaper and more competitive than fossil fuels. So developers will be much more likely to build a clean energy project than a fossil fuel one — if they can get the permits.

So now we need to destroy the planet to "save" it?  I'm thinking it's more about certain special interests filling their pockets than saving the environment.

One astute citizen proposed that for every megawatt of renewable energy or transmission constructed in rural communities, the transmission lovers construct an equal amount of transmission and generation in their own backyard.  I'm a little more jaded though... I want to make them feel the impacts of the destruction of the productive farmland that feeds them.  No dinner for you tonight!  You saved the planet today instead!

Grain Belt Express is a lot more than an "eyesore" to the thousands of rural landowners who are facing the taking of their property to construct an overhead transmission line across their productive land.  These landowners participated in and watched with great interest last week when the Missouri PSC held hearings on GBE's new project.  These farmers should have been working their land last week, not watching a hearing.  I'm still trying to catch up on watching the hearings and will probably have a lot more to say about them when I finish.

The New York Times reporters should go to bed without supper a few evenings, just to see what their brave new world is going to be like.
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American Genius:  Combining highways and electric transmission

5/26/2023

1 Comment

 
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Missouri is proceeding with a study of upgrading its Highway 36 into Interstate 72 in conjunction with the widening of Interstate 70, which runs through Kansas, Missouri and Illinois.

The study is going to cost Missouri taxpayers $2.5M.  Upgrading the highways is going to cost them even more.  What if there was a way to pay for these road improvements that didn't involve taxpayer funding?

Such an opportunity has existed for over a decade now, but Missouri lawmakers refuse to consider what's right in front of them.  What if Grain Belt Express was required to site its project buried on the edges of the new road right-of-way, instead of building it overhead on new rights-of-way across private property?  Instead of paying landowners millions of dollars in compensation payments for ruining their land, what if GBE simply paid the state those millions to use its road right-of-way?  The road improvements could get done faster and cheaper, and GBE would not have to struggle to acquire land from citizens against their will.  GBE would only have to negotiate with one landowner, the highway administration.

It's pure genius... a fitting use for Highway 36, which has been dubbed, "The Way of American Genius."  It practically writes its own press release.  You're welcome.

But, but, but, you say, there's a million reasons why GBE cannot exist with highways.  But, really there isn't.  All those old excuses have been dispelled by up-to-date research, science, and implementation.

READ the information provided on The Ray's website.  This non-profit organization has a mission to build "a movement to build net-zero highways."  It makes ever so much more sense to combine new highways with new transmission with new technology to create a useful system that not only doesn't cause new burdens on private landowners, but delivers so many benefits that we will find useful in the future.

The article about Highway 36 says,
Riggs said he hopes MoDOT’s study looks at ways to make the future interstate “agriculturally friendly” to farmers can co-exist with freight traffic. In addition, he wants the upgrades to include electric vehicle charging stations.
What if those charging stations could be built along the highway using the DC power carried by GBE?  I know, brain explosion, right?  Maybe you want to let Rep. Louis Riggs, a Hannibal Republican, know about The Ray's work so he can use that information to make sure the new Highway 36 builds for the future, instead of the past.  You can contact him here. 

There's nothing stopping Grain Belt Express from changing its plan to route its project buried along a new Highway 36, except that they don't want to.  GBE has poured tons of money into its last century plan to build a DC transmission line overhead across over 200 miles of private property in Missouri in parallel to the existing Highway 36, even though better ideas were right there all along!  Any extra cost for the company is entirely GBE's fault because it chose to pursue an outdated project model when new research and discoveries pointed to better solutions.

We need to tell everyone about the possibilities of modern highways and modern transmission working together to propel us into a bright future!
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I Hope You Enjoy Sweating

5/5/2023

2 Comments

 
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Texas grid operators and regulators are warning of the possibility of blackouts this summer.  They say that there is not enough dispatchable generation to cover periods when renewables like solar and wind are not performing.  A dispatchable generator can generate electricity when needed.  An intermittent renewable generator only generates power when nature provides the fuel.
Lake said this summer, the riskiest hours on the hottest days could be closer to the 9 p.m. timeframe when solar power goes away with the sunset.
"It's still hot at 9 p.m. The sun sets faster than the atmosphere cools, and our solar generation is all gone. So at that point in the day, we will be relying on wind generation,” he said.  "If the wind does not pick up, we will have to rely on our on-demand, dispatchable generators. And the data is showing us that on our hottest days under a certain set of circumstances, we may not have enough on-demand, dispatchable generation to cover the gap between when the sun sets -- and we lose the solar -- and when our wind generation picks up.” 
So if there's not enough wind on those hottest days, outages are possible after sunset.
But it's not just Texas.  The Southwest Power Pool, that operates the grid in the southwestern plains has also issued an alert for next week.
SPP has issued a resource advisory for its 14-state balancing authority area in the Eastern Interconnection next week, effective Monday at 10 a.m. CT through 8 p.m. Tuesday, because of an expected shortfall from wind resources and generating units offline on maintenance outages.

The difference is a forecast that projects wind energy to be significantly lower during the advisory period.
And it's not just ERCOT and SPP.  The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) is warning that there could be problems this summer.
"Relatively low wind volatility but low production levels can stress some of our operations conditions as we do have a lot more wind in our system than we have had in the past," Kuzman said. MISO's summer wind forecasts tend to be off by 800-1,200 MW, and there is usually a falloff of wind output in August, he said.
And it's not just ERCOT and SPP and MISO, PJM Interconnection, the grid operator for Mid-Atlantic states recently issued its own warning.
Power supplies in the US PJM Interconnection could get dangerously tight this summer if there is high demand and high outages -- a situation that would require the grid operator to rely on demand response to maintain reliability, Mike Bryson, senior vice president of operations at PJM, said May 4.

When PJM looked at the combination of unexpectedly high demand and high outages, it saw "for the first time that we would be below operating reserves for the summer," Bryson told a meeting of the Illinois Commerce Commission.
It's no longer a fluke or a coincidence.  It's reality, and it's spreading.  Environmental groups say "don't blame wind and solar, blame increasingly bad weather."  And of course, that increasingly bad weather, they claim, is a direct result of "climate change" and "climate change" is caused by reliable baseload power generators, like coal and gas.  So, if we turn off all the fossil fuels, will the weather change enough to provide 24/7 dependable wind and solar power?  Absolutely not.  This is a ridiculous contention.

Here's a good article on how and why this resource inadequacy is spreading like the plague.
“What other states do has a great effect on the grid. For example, any of the [PJM] states that say they’re going to go completely green or clean or whatever you want to call it — they say they’re not going to use any more fossil fuel. Well, that means they’re going to rely on someone else to provide power for them in those times when these clean and green energy projects don’t work. They’re intermittent; they depend on the time of day. The example I use is: Where does the power come from for a solar array at three o’clock in the morning?”
PJM is the last fossil-fuel generating hold out, and in the face of its own looming reliability problems, it can no longer be the powerhouse of the eastern interconnection.

Are these the solutions the clean energy peddlars and our bloated, woke government see?  They'll be the first to scream when the lights go out.
“There are two solutions: There will be certain times when you operate your appliances or charge your car or whatever, or there will be rolling blackouts. Neither of those sound like very good options to me.”
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Ogres, Orks, Obakes and Offsets

4/30/2023

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What do these four things have in common?  They are entirely mythical.  They simply don't exist in reality.

This article caught my eye this week.  Google is partnering up with EDPR to build "community solar" that will power Google's gigantic data center power suck.  Except they won't.  The new solar projects won't provide power to Google data centers.  They will simply "offset" Google's enormous thirst for electricity supplied by coal and gas-fired power plants.  After all, if Google actually powered its data centers with solar, you wouldn't be able to use Google after dark, and everything would be erased by dawn each morning.  Instead, Google uses good old reliable fossil fuel burning electricity and activates its climate guilt to build renewables somewhere else for someone else to use.

It's a scheme that has been around for awhile.  Years ago, I investigated "renewable energy credits", or RECs to find out that they aren't actually energy at all.  While renewable generators provide and sell power to actual customers, they also sell RECs.  A REC is the social and environmental attributes of renewable power.  It is a completely separate product that is bought and sold, although it doesn't actually exist.  A REC is mythical, just like an offset.  An offset pretends that a power customer like Google can "offset" its carbon footprint by producing enough renewable power to match its use of fossil fuel power.  They believe if they produce as much power as they use then it negates their use of power.  Someone else's use of that power is supposed to substitute for that person's use of dirty power.  Except does it really?  If Google cannot rely on solar power 24/7, can anyone else?  Of course not.  We all use power 24/7.  This is starting to sound like a pyramid scheme where other people get stuck using unreliable renewable power 24/7 while Google uses all the good, reliable stuff without guilt because it has "offsets."

This is pure nonsense!

Sure, giving away money generated by the sale of community solar power is all Robin Hood-ish.  But would the community solar actually benefit the community in which it was sited if that community did not meet the financial qualifications?  Or is Google going to build these community solar projects in rural areas and give the profits to energy users in urban areas that qualify?  It's all so much fairy tale fantasy.

Ditto on the idea that overbuilding of renewables and connecting them all by overbuilding transmission can somehow make up for renewable power's unreliable intermittency.  But yet the political minions claim this to be so because it all works out on average.  Average.  A math problem.  If we have this much renewable power, and it has an average capacity factor of 30%, then if we build 70% more than we actually need that will create a 100% capacity factor. 

Capacity factor is the percentage of a power plant's maximum capacity that is actually produced.  Power plants cycle up and cycle down to follow load.  They don't run at their full capacity all the time.  However, renewable generators cycle up and cycle down at the whim of nature and load is supposed to follow them.  There's the difference.

Presuming that a region with lots of intermittent renewable power can "borrow" from its neighboring region when it doesn't have enough power doesn't work because its not a math problem.  It's reality.  What if the neighboring region is also experiencing inadequate generation?  Night is long, and an hour's time difference isn't going to cover it.  Say the sun sets in the Pacific at 9:00 p.m., and the sun rises over the Atlantic at 6 a.m.  There's a three hour time difference, so the Pacific solar generation ends at midnight Atlantic time.  It's still 6 hours before the sun rises there. 

Battery power, you say?  But we don't have the technology to store electricity for long periods of time, batteries are very expensive, and they come with their own environmental burdens.  Not a solution.

We have not found the "clean power" silver bullet.  It's not wind + solar + transmission.  However, saying it is makes certain people and certain companies very, very rich.  What a bunch of patsies!  Making crap up for the sake of political and financial gain is never going to stop.  However, we can all get a lot smarter and stop believing it.

When the power flickers on and off in the middle of the night, I used to think it was an equipment failure somewhere, roll over, and go back to sleep.  Now when it happens, I feel compelled to get out of bed to check my phone to make sure the grid hasn't crashed in a spectacular way before I can relax enough to go back to sleep.  Welcome to the land of Ogres, Orks, Obakes and Offsets.
0 Comments

Chump Change

4/19/2023

1 Comment

 
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An insignificant amount of money that is thought to be a lot of money by a blockheaded chump.

I see that Buchanan County, Missouri, signed a Grain Belt Express Road Use Agreement for chump change, seemingly because Randolph County did it first.
...in the Buchanan County Courthouse, where Grain Belt has agreed to pay more than $300,000 over 20 years to bring the power line through this area.
The deal, based on a similar agreement in Randolph County, would provide Buchanan County with one lump-sum payment of $75,000 plus $15,000 annually for 20 years.

So there Buchanan County was, in the catbird seat where it could have asked for anything in exchange for signing Grain Belt's agreement... and they settled for chump change.

Why is $75K up front and $15K a year an insignificant amount for Buchanan County?  According to the Google Gods, Buchanan County's annual budget for 2022 was $85.6 million.  That's MILLION.  Those Grain Belt payments are hardly going to make a dent in that.

Grain Belt could be using (and abusing?) Buchanan County's roads during construction of GBE (if it actually ever finds any customers to create project revenue).  The agreement says GBE will repair the roads after construction.  Right.  I'm sure GBE will cheerfully agree to repair every road it damages, even those off the haul routes, or ones where nobody has proof that GBE contractors caused the damage.  The key point here is that GBE will only repair the roads that it agrees it damaged.  I've yet to find a construction truck that admits or apologizes for road or berm damage.  Good luck, Buchanan County!

Even after construction is "complete," the transmission line could be there for perpetuity and like any aging transmission line it may need repairs and upgrades.  Good luck there, Buchanan County!

So, how much is $15K in Grain Belt's world?  It would be like me flipping a dime at one of those professional panhandlers that stand at traffic lights pretending to be homeless.  Did Buchanan County stop to consider (maybe even ask) how much revenue GBE could bring in if it ever finds any customers to pay for it?  It's probably a lot more than $15,000 per year.  It's probably more like $15,000 per hour.

Gosh, what a deal you made for your citizens, Buchanan County!

If they weren't sure of the relevance of $15K to GBE and whether or not it was a considerable sum for allowing GBE to cross county roads, maybe they could have assured that they were paid what it was worth by asking for a percentage of the annual profit, instead of a set sum that becomes less and less valuable over time as the value of money falls.

Chump:  a foolish or easily deceived person.
1 Comment

About As Sneaky As A Herd Of Elephants

3/18/2023

2 Comments

 
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Well, hey now, what's that noise?  Is it a herd of elephants thundering through private property across the west?

This lovely article says:
John Arnold, a billionaire from Houston, is making a big bet on modernizing the outdated transmission infrastructure in the United States to transport electricity to areas where it is needed, including the distribution of wind and solar energy to towns and cities nationwide for the clean-energy transition. 
Arnold told Bloomberg he has invested "several hundred million dollars" into Houston-based Grid United, a company he co-founded with transmission line developer Michael Skelly, to purchase land, easements, and the necessary permits for constructing electric highways that can stretch hundreds of miles.
Mikey's got a new sugar daddy!  You might be wondering how he found another mark to give him a couple hundred million dollars to play transmission.  If you figure it out, let me know.

Here's the plan:
Arnold and Skelly are planning long-haul transmission lines across multiple states on private land that might be very difficult to achieve because failing to win over every landowner could quickly scuttle the entire project.

"We are trying to break this chicken and egg cycle by acquiring the land position first."
How do you acquire the land first if you're honest with landowners about what you intend to do?  If they want to sell their land, they'll do it.  And if they don't, they won't, no matter how "early" you plan to hustle them.  Does Skelly think he can sneak up on landowners and acquire their "land position" before telling them he plans to build a ginormous overhead transmission line on it?  That's about as subtle as a herd of elephants.  The landowners aren't stupid.  That was Skelly's problem last time... he thought landowners were "just a bunch of farmers" that he could easily bamboozle.  And the next thing you know, he'd pissed away $200M of investor's money and his company folded.  Good times!

Maybe Skelly doesn't know that eminent domain exists for a reason?  It is so that land can be acquired for public use, particularly for long, linear infrastructure that requires the buy-in from hundreds or thousands of landowners.  There's bound to be a fly or two thousand in the ointment.

And, hey, would you look at that?  Skelly is "developing" five new projects, just like last time.  It's like throwing spaghetti on the wall and hoping a few pieces stick.  Didn't work last time.  It just wasted a whole bunch of money that could have gone to better use.

And what do either of these yahoos know about where power is "needed"?  Their knowledge thimble may be only half full.

You'd think after his last spectacular transmission failure Skelly would have learned at least something... like burying transmission on existing highway rights of way is faster and cheaper and doesn't require any landowner participation.

How much money is going to be wasted this time?  Keep your ear to the ground... there may be a herd of elephants approaching.
2 Comments

Who's Ready For A New Game of Whack-a-Mole?

3/18/2023

0 Comments

 
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This idiotic news article proclaims that "Grain Belt Express Has Positive Update."  For now, but things can change, just like they did last time the Illinois Commerce Commission approved GBE.

Just take a look at the ICC's Order:
The Landowner Alliance and YTI both assert that Section 8-406(b-5) constitutes special legislation in violation of Article IV, Section 13 of the Illinois Constitution of 1970 and violates the Equal Protection and Separation of Powers Clauses of Article II, Section 1 of the Illinois Constitution. The Landowner Alliance notes that Intervenor Bradley Daugherty filed the Lawsuit in the Circuit Court for the Fifth Judicial Circuit in Clark County, Illinois which asserts that Section 8-406(b-5) is unconstitutional for the same reasons outlined by Landowner Alliance and YTI. The Landowner Alliance agrees with GBX’s position that the Commission does not have jurisdiction to declare the special legislation enacted for GBX unconstitutional and that this challenge is properly before the Circuit Court in Clark County. Cinkus v. Vill. of Stickney, 228 Ill.2d 214 (2000); Bd. of Educ. of Peoria, 2013 IL 114853, ¶38. The Landowner Alliance raised the constitutional challenges under the Special Legislation Clause, the Equal Protection Clause, and the Separation of Powers Clause of Article II, Section 1 of the Illinois Constitution before this Commission to avoid any challenges based upon exhaustion of remedies or waiver raised by any party who asserts that Section 8-406(b-5) is constitutional.

The Landowner Alliance argues that determining whether a law runs afoul of the Special Legislation Clause requires a determination of whether the statutory classification discriminates in favor of a particular group, and second, if it does, whether the classification is arbitrary. Doe v. Lyft, Inc., 2020 IL App (1st) 191328, ¶34, appeal allowed, 163 N.E.3d 713 (Table). The Landowner Alliance asserts that “arbitrary” can mean motivated by caprice, politics, or bias. Foreman v. Civil Service Comm’n of the City of Chicago, 7 Ill. App. 2d 122 at 126 (1st Dist. 1955). Also, “arbitrary” can also mean whether it is rationally related to a legitimate state interest. Moline School District v. Quinn, 2016 IL 119704, ¶26.
The Landowner Alliance states that prior to the enactment of Section 8-406(b-5) a non-public utility like GBX with no ownership or control of assets to be used for the production, transmission or furnishing of electricity could not utilize the rocket docket process available only for public utilities under Section 8-406.1. The Landowner Alliance argues that after GBX failed to obtain its CPCN as a non-public utility in 2015 and the Third District Appellate Court held that Rock Island Clean Line’s project did not satisfy the public use requirement, Invenergy Transmissions, L.L.C. lobbied the General Assembly, which enacted the new Section 8-406(b-5), which allows the Commission to issue a CPCN to a “qualifying direct current applicant,” defined as “any entity” that “seeks to provide direct current bulk transmission service for the purpose of transporting electric energy in interstate commerce.” 220 ILCS 5/8-406(b-5).
The Landowner Alliance points out that if the qualifying direct current applicant has a “qualifying direct current project,” the certificate can be issued “without the taking of additional evidence on these criteria.” Id. The Landowner Alliance states that it is obvious that the amended section tracks the application of GBX almost exactly. The Landowner Alliance argues that while GBX did not have to put forth any evidence relative to Section 8-406(b), every other entity or utility has that obligation. It goes on to argue that Section 8-406(b-5) essentially states that GBX does not need to meet the requirements of Sections 3-105, 8-406(b), or 8-406.1(f)(1) and does not need to meet the public use requirement to offer services in a non-discriminatory manner.
The Landowner Alliance argues that if GBX is allowed to side-step the public use requirement, the asset ownership requirement, and Sections 8-406(b) and 406.1(f)(1) and proceed with its “qualified direct current project,” on or before the arbitrary date of December 31, 2023, the door closes, and no other entity will qualify under Section 8-406(b-5).
The Landowner Alliance further argues that Section 8-406(b-5) arbitrarily discriminates against landowners, including the Landowner Alliance, that own land within Pike, Scott, Greene Macoupin, Montgomery, Christian, Shelby, Cumberland, and Clark Counties, Illinois (the “Enumerated Counties”), to the benefit of landowners that own real estate outside of the Enumerated Counties. Section 8-406(b-5) arbitrarily and unfairly subjects the landowners within the Enumerated Counties to the possibility of the Project traversing through their property without the same level of review by the Commission that is afforded landowners in non-Enumerated Counties.
The Landowner Alliance argues that there is no rational basis for this legislative purpose, and Section 8-406(b-5) is arbitrary and unreasonable. The classification created by the statute is not based upon reasonable differences in kind or situation, and whether the basis of the classification is insufficiently related to the statutory purpose. Doe v. Lyft, Inc., 2020 IL App (1st) 191328, ¶36, citing Best v. Taylor Machine Works, 179 Ill. 2d 367, 394 (1997).
The Landowner Alliance concludes that GBX is the only entity that will be using 8-406(b-5) for its project. Section 8-406(b-5) was passed for the benefit of only one entity, GBX, to enable it to bypass the requirements of Sections 3-105, 8-406(a) and (b) and 8-406.1.
The Landowner Alliance asserts that this special legislation violates the Equal Protection Clause of the Illinois Constitution. The Landowner Alliance argues that under the new legislation, Section 8-406(b-5), landowners in the nine counties are deprived of their right to a full evidentiary hearing and were forced to participate in the rocket docket process, which is available only to public utilities, before a CPCN is granted to a non-public utility merchant transmission line developer. The Landowner Alliance claims that no other project falls within the qualified direct current project designation and that both the qualified direct current applicant and the qualified direct current project are elements of the same denial of Equal Protection.
According to the Landowner Alliance, the legislature looked at the requirements that GBX and Rock Island Clean Line failed to meet under the Act and Illinois common law, and then passed special legislation custom tailored to make sure that GBX could obtain a CPCN. As a result, the Landowners are being treated differently from all similarly situated individuals in violation of the Equal Protection Clause.
The Landowner Alliance further asserts that Section 8-406(b-5) violates the Separation of Powers Clause of the Illinois Constitution. It is the Landowner Alliance’s position that the General Assembly’s purpose in enacting subsection (b-5) was to expressly order the Commission to approve GBX’s Project and grant it a CPCN. The Landowner Alliance states that the portion of Section 8-406(b-5) declaring the Project a public use violates Article II, Section 1 of the Illinois Constitution because, by arrogating to itself the power to declare something a public use, the General Assembly is exercising the judicial power to determine whether a particular use is public or private. The Landowner Alliance argues that it is well settled Illinois law that the determination of whether, for purposes of exercising the power of eminent domain, a proposed use is a public use is a decision for the courts, not the legislature.
The Landowner Alliance further argues that if this portion of Section 8-406(b-5) is allowed to stand, the General Assembly will have acquired sole power to define what the term "public use" means in Article II, Section 1 of the Illinois Constitution. According to the Landowner Alliance, the General Assembly's eminent domain power would then be left unchecked because there would be no branch of government that could review its public use decisions. The General Assembly would have eminent domain power by fiat: it could merely declare something a public use in order to affect the involuntary transfer of private property from one party to another, which has never been the law in the State of Illinois. The Landowner Alliance concludes that in the public use declaration in Section 8-406(b-5) the General Assembly unconstitutionally usurps the judicial power. The Landowner Alliance contends that GBX’s Application should be denied due to these constitutional concerns, along with the other arguments that it has raised in this proceeding.
To sum it up, GBE's special legislation for its project is unconstitutional.  The Landowners' arguments are sound.  Let's see what a court does with it now.  Get your hammer ready to pound GBE back in its hole.

And then, back to that ridiculous article...

The project does not have all the necessary siting approvals in all states.  It is still trying to get siting approved in Missouri.  And there are some problems in Kansas that need solving.  And GBE needs a favorable Environmental Impact Statement from the U.S Government in order to get an unsecured loan from the taxpayers.

And then it spits out some completely unverified numbers of energy savings, jobs and economic activity.  Who is going to measure this to see that it actually happens?  NOBODY, that's who.  It's all just magic math.

The only thing I'm positive about is that this isn't the end. 
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    About the Author

    Keryn Newman blogs here at StopPATH WV about energy issues, transmission policy, misguided regulation, our greedy energy companies and their corporate spin.
    In 2008, AEP & Allegheny Energy's PATH joint venture used their transmission line routing etch-a-sketch to draw a 765kV line across the street from her house. Oooops! And the rest is history.

    About
    StopPATH Blog

    StopPATH Blog began as a forum for information and opinion about the PATH transmission project.  The PATH project was abandoned in 2012, however, this blog was not.

    StopPATH Blog continues to bring you energy policy news and opinion from a consumer's point of view.  If it's sometimes snarky and oftentimes irreverent, just remember that the truth isn't pretty.  People come here because they want the truth, instead of the usual dreadful lies this industry continues to tell itself.  If you keep reading, I'll keep writing.


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