I'm not sure the Texas utility commissioners were suitably impressed by the executive "team" from Columbus, who showed up today to let the commissioners know how important this was to the company. Nick Akins managed to drop the not so subtle hint that he expected approval for his project back in April. And now here it is July. Although he did forget to mention how he had promised investment analysts that he would have approval by the end of June at the latest. But it appears that the magic date is now August 6, when AEP must issue another notice to proceed to its wind farm and transmission contractors.
But I think things are already starting to wind down. The writing is on the wall. The signals have been signaled. The only thing left to happen is one fat lady bursting into song.
It's obvious AEP won't proceed with Wind Catcher on a merchant basis. If AEP was considering taking on the risk themselves, they wouldn't still be begging at utility commissions.
So, today Texas commissioners sat through an hour or so of oral argument. You can watch it here, starting around minute 6:44. If you want to cut to the chase, forward it about another hour to watch Nick Akins beg.
The arguments against the project seemed better than the arguments for. Supply diversity? Really? You think AEP customers should pay extra for that? Then why don't you sign a few more wind PPAs, rather than buy a wind farm and build a 350-mile gen tie? It would probably be a lot cheaper.
The Commissioners didn't look very convinced. After the arguments were over, the chairwoman asked the other commissioners how they wanted to proceed and they all agreed that they need more time to think about things. They're looking at the Louisiana settlement and trying to figure out which parts would fall under a most favored nations clause and how that would affect the bottom line.
She then said she couldn't approve it as it now stands. It needs more protections for consumers. She urged the parties to come up with more consumer guarantees that might help her feel more comfortable. Sounds like the ball's in AEP's court on that one. Only AEP can provide more customer guarantees... ones that actually mitigate customer risk this time would be nice. Except... oh wait a tick... any real guarantee would require financial risk on the part of the company. Like if SWEPCO's guarantees of benefit don't pan out, will it still pay the same benefits out of the company's profits? But that's no good either, since a REAL guarantee would put SWEPCO at financial risk and affect the health of the company. A utility that isn't turning a profit, that isn't financially healthy, is bad for its customers.
Damned if you do, AEP.
Damned if you don't.
It's over. Time to send Wind Catcher to the great dump heap of failed ideas and try to find some creative accounting way to recover all the money you've wasted on this endeavor.
The Commission agreed to re-visit the case at their next open meeting on July 26. The chairwoman was certain all the AEP guys couldn't wait to come back then.
Don't count on it. I think they're going to be announcing to the investment community that the project is being canned right about then.
Dilemma... which meeting will be more fun to listen to first?