Just when you had puzzed and puzzed until your puzzler was sore trying to interpret PJM's 5-book RTEP set, concisely edited by Leo Tolstoy, PJM has issued another voluminous report. The 2011 State of the Market Report is like the world's biggest fortune cookie, with your hidden fortune cleverly translated into Ancient Sanskrit. I wish PJM would get more efficient and issue Magic 8 Balls instead. I mean, how easy it could be to give it a shake and say, "Oh, PJM Magic 8 Ball, will the PATH Project be coming back?" The PJM Magic 8 Ball would give you an immediate answer like, "Don't count on it!" Instead all we get are these encyclopedic mystery novels with "Reply hazy, try again!" stamped on the front cover.
Here's PJM's CliffsNotes version press release summarizing the report. This is about as concise as it gets:
"The report noted that gas prices fell and coal prices rose in 2011. Gas prices decreased on average by 10 percent and coal prices increased on average by 19 percent in 2011. PJM LMPs were lower. The load-weighted average LMP was five percent lower in 2011. PJM capacity prices were lower. PJM average capacity prices were 18 percent lower in 2011. Operating reserve charges increased by 1.0 percent in 2011. Congestion costs decreased in PJM by 29.9 percent in 2011."
Inside the big report, there's a section entitled, "Generation and Transmission Planning" (Volume 2, Sec. 11!) The report's mention of PATH seems to be missing one crucial fact -- that this project is supposedly "suspended." The report prattles on like PATH hasn't skipped a beat, but throws you a tiny little bone at the end saying that PJM is "considering new information." What is that supposed to mean, PJM Magic 8 Ball? "Outlook not so good." I hope Magic 8 Ball was speaking from PATH's perspective...
The Potomac - Appalachian Transmission Highline (PATH) project is required to resolve reliability criteria violations. The PATH project consists of a 765 kV transmission line extending approximately 275 miles from the Amos Substation, which is located in southwestern West Virginia, to the proposed Kemptown (765/500 kV) Substation, located in central Virginia. The project also includes a new Welton Spring (765/500 kV) Substation.
Currently, right-of-way issues are being discussed in West Virginia, Virginia and Maryland. The property for the Welton Spring and Kemptown substations has been acquired. The preliminary engineering design work, as well as the preliminary procurement activities, is in progress. Construction will be scheduled to begin following receipt of state commission approvals to construct. The required in-service date for the PATH line is June 1, 2015.
PJM is in the process of considering new information, including fuel cost estimates, emissions costs, future generation scenarios, load forecast updates and demand response projections.
Further down in the report, the MMU goes and gets all cranky about transmission projects dropping out of the RTEP messing up his little markets and makes this recommendation:
"The MMU recommends that PJM propose modifications to the transmission planning process that would limit significant changes in the status of major transmission projects after they have been approved, and thus limit the uncertainty imposed on markets by the use of evaluation criteria that are very sensitive to changes in forecasts of economic variables."
Way to send us all to the poor house, MMU!
This little transmission project went to market,
This little transmission project stayed in the RTEP,
This little transmission project is "in abeyance,"
And this little transmission project is not,
But this little transmission project cried, "Wah, Wah, Wah" all the way to abandonment.
Don't you just love the new "stakeholder friendly" PJM?
Here's PJM's CliffsNotes version press release summarizing the report. This is about as concise as it gets:
"The report noted that gas prices fell and coal prices rose in 2011. Gas prices decreased on average by 10 percent and coal prices increased on average by 19 percent in 2011. PJM LMPs were lower. The load-weighted average LMP was five percent lower in 2011. PJM capacity prices were lower. PJM average capacity prices were 18 percent lower in 2011. Operating reserve charges increased by 1.0 percent in 2011. Congestion costs decreased in PJM by 29.9 percent in 2011."
Inside the big report, there's a section entitled, "Generation and Transmission Planning" (Volume 2, Sec. 11!) The report's mention of PATH seems to be missing one crucial fact -- that this project is supposedly "suspended." The report prattles on like PATH hasn't skipped a beat, but throws you a tiny little bone at the end saying that PJM is "considering new information." What is that supposed to mean, PJM Magic 8 Ball? "Outlook not so good." I hope Magic 8 Ball was speaking from PATH's perspective...
The Potomac - Appalachian Transmission Highline (PATH) project is required to resolve reliability criteria violations. The PATH project consists of a 765 kV transmission line extending approximately 275 miles from the Amos Substation, which is located in southwestern West Virginia, to the proposed Kemptown (765/500 kV) Substation, located in central Virginia. The project also includes a new Welton Spring (765/500 kV) Substation.
Currently, right-of-way issues are being discussed in West Virginia, Virginia and Maryland. The property for the Welton Spring and Kemptown substations has been acquired. The preliminary engineering design work, as well as the preliminary procurement activities, is in progress. Construction will be scheduled to begin following receipt of state commission approvals to construct. The required in-service date for the PATH line is June 1, 2015.
PJM is in the process of considering new information, including fuel cost estimates, emissions costs, future generation scenarios, load forecast updates and demand response projections.
Further down in the report, the MMU goes and gets all cranky about transmission projects dropping out of the RTEP messing up his little markets and makes this recommendation:
"The MMU recommends that PJM propose modifications to the transmission planning process that would limit significant changes in the status of major transmission projects after they have been approved, and thus limit the uncertainty imposed on markets by the use of evaluation criteria that are very sensitive to changes in forecasts of economic variables."
Way to send us all to the poor house, MMU!
This little transmission project went to market,
This little transmission project stayed in the RTEP,
This little transmission project is "in abeyance,"
And this little transmission project is not,
But this little transmission project cried, "Wah, Wah, Wah" all the way to abandonment.
Don't you just love the new "stakeholder friendly" PJM?
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