PJM's PATH Project Analysis Update begins on page 9. Page 12 says PATH is not needed for reliability reasons.
Under 15 year thermal test:
"No 500 kV potential thermal overloads identified."
Under MAAC Load Deliverability Voltage:
"CETL > CETO"
CETL stands for Capacity Emergency Transfer Limits and is the actual emergency import capability of the test area.
CETO stands for Capacity Emergency Transfer Objective and is the import capability required by an area to comply with a Transmission Risk of one event in 25 Years.
An area passes the deliverability test if its CETL is equal to or greater than its CETO.
So, how about it PJM, can we toss PATH onto the great scrap heap of failed transmission projects that have cost consumers millions without providing any benefit now?
Oh no, not yet! PJM still has one more test to run, the N-1-1 power flow modeling test, which they say will be completed before the next TEAC meeting on August 9.
N-1-1 means they look at every combination of two separate – one after the other - transmission line outages throughout PJM to make sure PATH really isn't needed after all. Not only are PJM's N-1-1 scenarios highly unlikely to ever occur, but they defy common sense. If a grid-killing disaster happens (derecho, anyone?) that takes out two separate transmission lines, who's to say that said disaster won't also take out the PATH Project, or any other transmission line they propose as a backup? As we've all found out over the past couple of weeks, a "robust" transmission system is only as good as the distribution system that brings the power to your home or business. And as a group of Consumer Organizations pointed out to FERC last month, transmission incentives are pulling investment away from the distribution system.
The good news from today's TEAC meeting is that if the analysis continues to show that the PATH and MAPP lines are not needed, the TEAC will recommend to the PJM Board that the projects be dropped from the RTEP (and no longer held in abeyance).
Thank you, PJM Magic 8 ball!