The U.S. electric grid is divided up into different regions, and several regions are struggling to keep the lights on this summer due to lack of generation at peak demand times. There are issues in the Midwest, and Texas, and much of the west. Clean energy fanatics like to blame this on "climate change" and pretend that "extreme weather" is to blame. They keep advocating for more wind and solar generators and new transmission lines to connect them. They make all sorts of suggestions about how we can avoid overtaxing renewable energy generators that may fail to operate when energy is needed. The latest seems to be that air conditioning is overtaxing the system and we should learn to live without it, like our ancestors did. What's next? Heat? Should we all switch to fireplaces and wood stoves and remove all our indoor plumbing so it doesn't freeze in the winter? Worst of all, they call this "progress."
The wind and solar fantasy asserts that if we only triple the amount of electric transmission in this country, we'll have the capacity to ship every electron generated anywhere in the country to any other place that needs electricity. The idea is that we can "borrow" from our neighboring regions when our own is deficient.
But let's pull back the wrapper on that idea a bit, shall we? The PJM Interconnection region consists of Mid-Atlantic states and pushes west into parts of Illinois. It covers the Ohio Valley, where the bulk of the electricity to fuel the East coast has been produced for decades at "mine mouth" plants that burn coal and natural gas and then ship the electricity east on gigantic transmission lines. Because PJM is fossil fuel heavy (60% of the power in PJM is produced by coal and gas), it is a favorite place to "borrow" power when wind and solar is not producing enough in neighboring regions that have overbuilt wind and solar and closed their own coal and gas plants.
But now PJM is on the verge of its own crisis. Where will PJM "borrow" power from when the surrounding regions don't have enough to share, and in fact are trying to "borrow" from PJM? A group of power suppliers in PJM are speaking out about the upcoming crisis:
The wind and solar fantasy asserts that if we only triple the amount of electric transmission in this country, we'll have the capacity to ship every electron generated anywhere in the country to any other place that needs electricity. The idea is that we can "borrow" from our neighboring regions when our own is deficient.
But let's pull back the wrapper on that idea a bit, shall we? The PJM Interconnection region consists of Mid-Atlantic states and pushes west into parts of Illinois. It covers the Ohio Valley, where the bulk of the electricity to fuel the East coast has been produced for decades at "mine mouth" plants that burn coal and natural gas and then ship the electricity east on gigantic transmission lines. Because PJM is fossil fuel heavy (60% of the power in PJM is produced by coal and gas), it is a favorite place to "borrow" power when wind and solar is not producing enough in neighboring regions that have overbuilt wind and solar and closed their own coal and gas plants.
But now PJM is on the verge of its own crisis. Where will PJM "borrow" power from when the surrounding regions don't have enough to share, and in fact are trying to "borrow" from PJM? A group of power suppliers in PJM are speaking out about the upcoming crisis:
On the supply side in PJM, "we're seeing dramatic retirements" of coal-fired generation, with PJM retiring about 15 GW of coal in the next two years that it is not being replaced on a one-to-one basis, Thomas said.
The Midcontinent System Operator is experiencing a similar trend, with incremental generation resources being added that do not have the same reliability attributes as those being retired. "They are adding megawatts that are less valuable than the megawatts being retired, meaning they need to add significant multiples to replace what's being retired," he said.
In MISO, the accredited capacity being added goes down out to 2041, while the future load scenarios continue to go up.
The generator group calls this a "house of cards." I've been referring to it as a game of hot potato. Whatever its name, it means that we will run out of places to get power from very soon. Are you ready to do without?
"This is kind of a fascinating trend, and arguably not a sustainable trend, because what all these other regions are counting on is importing power from other areas of the country to make up the difference and that's a house of cards waiting to fall," Thomas said.
PJM is not one of the areas identified by the North American Electricity Reliability Corporation, an international regulatory authority, as having reliability concerns, but "they're coming in a big way," he said.
The PJM interconnection queue of resources planning to connect to the grid is 95%, if not more, wind and solar power resources, which is where the economic signals are right now.
"There is going to be very little to no new natural gas coming into the system and coal is going to continue to retire" with the nuclear power resources remaining because they are subsidized at the state and federal level, Thomas said.
So we're retiring the reliable fossil fuel resources we (and other regions) have depended on to keep the lights on, and replacing them with intermittent, weather-dependent renewables that are not reliable. And our government keeps propping up intermittent renewables with tax credits, loans and a plethora of expensive programs and regulations that make them a financial gold mine for companies that construct them.
One of the core tenets of the PJM capacity market is that in order to have capacity it must be deliverable. A megawatt of power on the system only has value if it can be delivered at peak demand periods, Thomas said.
PJM has been giving capacity accreditation to intermittent resources above their approved capacity injection rights levels, so these resources were selling capacity that was not deliverable, and that is a problem, he said.
The problematic aspect is consumers have been paying for capacity that has no value at peak, and suppliers "are getting boxed out of the market by these undeliverable megawatts," Thomas said.
Government spending is making our grid unreliable. Can we change course before the lights go out?
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