Behold, Project Compass!
At any rate, here's the motivation for this ambitious and bodacious "investment" in new transmission:
The strong year-to-date increase in ongoing earnings was driven in part by a combined $69 million from our domestic utilities, driven by returns on additional transmission investments in Pennsylvania...
Also this morning, we announced a PPL Electric Utilities proposal to PJM, as part of the competitive solicitation process under FERC Order 1000. As currently proposed, the 500 kV transmission line would run about 725 miles from Western Pennsylvania into New York and New Jersey, and also south into Maryland. The project is in the preliminary planning stages. The new line would improve electric service reliability, enhance grid security and enable the development of new gas-fired power plants in the shale gas regions of Northern Pennsylvania. The proposal would create savings for millions of electric customers by delivering lower cost electricity into the region and reducing grid-congesting cost. According to preliminary estimates, the cost of the project, which is not yet included in our CapEx projections, would be between $4 billion and $6 billion. Because of the magnitude of this proposal, there is a good chance we may enter into partnerships to develop and build the project. The preliminary timeline envisions completion of the project by 2023 to 2025, assuming all necessary approvals are received and construction begins in 2017. Approvals are needed from various regulatory and regional planning entities. We'll keep you posted on any further developments.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division
Bill, can you maybe get a little bit more into this transmission project today? I guess, kind of how the process works from announcing, looking at something to where we'll see action. What kind of dollars you have to spend upfront? And then, if you look at the challenges you guys had with Roseland and other folks have had in the past, trying to build these new Pennsylvania East type of transmission lines, how you guys think you're going to approach it to make it a higher chance of success?
William H. Spence - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, President and Chairman of Executive Committee
Sure. So the processes itself is one that's not been well traveled in the past, as you know. It's a relatively new process. So we'll continue to work with all the stakeholders to make sure that we do everything in our power to make sure that we get this approved on a -- as timely a basis as we can. Maybe I'll ask Greg to take you through kind of what we understand to be some of the key milestones and processes we have to do to make this a reality, so, Greg?
Gregory N. Dudkin - Principal Executive Officer, President and Director
Yes, thanks. So first off is the filings. So PJM had a window that just closed recently. So this project, Project Compass, was filed as part of that window. As far as the approvals are concerned, so this project not only is part of PJM, but also goes into the New York ISO, still need approvals from both entities. Also we'll need state approvals, as well as utility commission approvals. So for me, what increases the probability of success is just the compelling nature of this project. When you think about what's happened in the industry over the past year, the polar vortex, substation security being a big issue, coal retirements being a big issue. This project really pulls all those issues together and provides significant benefits to the consumers in the region. So I think it's the compelling nature of the benefits of this project that will help the project move forward. We are putting together an outreach plan. In fact, I've started this morning to get people that will be involved in the project, up to speed and be looking to work with others to make sure that this is a success.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division
Okay. So we should -- this will be, I guess, probably a little quiet from our perspective for -- in a period of time, while you get your ducks in a row. Is that kind of how we should think about it?
Gregory N. Dudkin - Principal Executive Officer, President and Director
Yes, I would say so. Because of all the entities we have to work with my sense is that we have a better idea about the timeline as far as approvals probably by the end of this year. But it should be fairly quiet from your perspective.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division
And then the money you guys are putting into it now, is there a route for recovery if this is not successful or is this money you guys are burying on PPL for the time being?
Gregory N. Dudkin - Principal Executive Officer, President and Director
Yes, this is something that is not recoverable. So we'll -- if it doesn't go forward, then we'll just had to eat that.
There's nothing "compelling" about this project. It's uninspired, unrealistic overbuild in its purest form. Why should ratepayers shell out billions to "fix" a bunch of minor problems?
Neel Mitra - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc., Research Division
Question on the transmission project. It looks like the map you provided, the starting points are really kind of where the new CCGTs, that are announced for PJM in '16 and '17, are being built. Is the -- is kind of the economic reason for the project that some of those gas plants that are going to be built right on top of the shales, they just don't have enough transmission capacity to get to where they need to, to provide reliability? Or is there another real economic benefit that I'm not seeing?
William H. Spence - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, President and Chairman of Executive Committee
Well, there's a number of potential benefits, and I'll let Greg describe some of those. But that clearly could be one of them, but there are others as well.
Gregory N. Dudkin - Principal Executive Officer, President and Director
Got it. And so, I would say when we are -- when potential generators come to us, one of the issues is they need to obviously connect to our transmission. And in some cases, that can be very, very high cost. So part of the thinking on the economics is if we sited through the region, the cost to connect for those generators would be much less. So again with potential coal retirements, we think there's economic advantage for that on a going-forward basis. And we use pretty conservative assumptions around generation retirements. But beyond that, there are reliability benefits. Again, we talked about substation security. There are benefits that, actually, we didn't really factor in the economics. But I think there'll be a significant economic benefit there, reduced congestion. So all that, when you factor all those together, it is a significant positive economic benefit to the consumers.
Reliability? Where's the driver for that? Or are we going to put the cart before the horse again and create the "opportunity" for transmission before creating the "reliability" issue it is intended to fix?
Substation security? How do existing substations get made safer by building new ones? Is it because we're going to increase the number of possible targets to water down interest in just a few crucial points?
Didn't factor in the economics... but I'm sure they can make something up!
Wow, pretty weak reasoning there, Greg!
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC
A lot of my questions have been answered. But just -- and I know it's some way off in the future here, but when the transmission line is built, what do you expect it to do to the market? Is there any basis differential or any sort of impact you could sort of suggest, that sort of in the ballpark, that would happen as a result of these major projects.
William H. Spence - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, President and Chairman of Executive Committee
Yes, as you can imagine, because it is so far out and there's so many moving pieces, coal retirements, how many new gas pipelines may be built to move shale gas away from the constrained areas, and so forth, that we really don't have a forecast that we could point you to suggest which way prices would move as a result of this transmission project.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC
Okay. And no part of the project is going to be really done before 2023, is that correct?
William H. Spence - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, President and Chairman of Executive Committee
That's our target. So with it, the earliest would be 2023.
Rajeev Lalwani - Morgan Stanley, Research Division
My first question is on the transmission project that you announced. Can you provide some insight on any competing projects that PJM is also looking at?
William H. Spence - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, President and Chairman of Executive Committee
At the moment, we're not aware of any competing projects. This is a very unique project, that I'm very proud of the team here that came up with the concept and the forward thinking to put something of this nature in front of PJM. So we're not aware of any competing projects. And the requests that PJM have had, have been smaller projects to basically address some relatively small reliability concerns. I think there 4 or 5 of them. And this project and I response to some of those, but it goes well beyond that. Again with something that we think is very unique and compelling from a stakeholder process -- perspective.
Obviously there is no need for a new transmission project of this magnitude, but PPL thinks they can "compel" PJM into agreeing to this massive boondoggle without any competition developing. This is exactly how PJM got into trouble on Project Mountaineer. When it's not about reliability or economics, it's greed, not need.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Research
Okay. And lastly on the transmission project, I know it's many years out, but just looking at how the Susquehanna-Roseland went and the 3-year delay to cross, what, a 3-mile stretch through the Delaware Water Gap even though there was an existing right of away. I mean, obviously, we don't see exactly how this proposed line goes, but should we expect similar issues with siting of the transmission line?
William H. Spence - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, President and Chairman of Executive Committee
Greg, do want to take one?
Gregory N. Dudkin - Principal Executive Officer, President and Director
Sure. Thanks. So certainly, when you're talking about a 725 mile line, siting is going to be a big issue. So we will work with all the stakeholders. We've had success, actually Susquehanna-Roseland is a great example. So it took us a while, but we were building through a national park. And I think it had been very successful. I think the folks there appreciate the care we took of the park, and so I think our reputation is good in that area and that's why I think we'll be successful.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Research
So this proposed line doesn't go through any national parks or any environmental -- that shouldn't face any environmental issues?
Gregory N. Dudkin - Principal Executive Officer, President and Director
No national parks.
ALL the stakeholders? Landowners and ratepayers, grab your stakes, we're heading out!